Provider sought for centralised wind and solar forecasts

The Electricity Authority Te Mana Hiko is seeking proposals for a service provider of intermittent generation forecasts for wind and solar farms across New Zealand. This will apply if the wind and solar farms in question are required to submit offers to the system operator.

We have found that forecasts of intermittent generation are often highly inaccurate and unreliable close to real time. This causes challenges for operation of the power system and risks increasing costs for consumers.

To address these problems, we undertook a review of forecasting provisions for intermittent generators.

In July 2024, after consulting on the issue, we decided to put in place a hybrid forecasting arrangement. This will provide a centrally procured forecast of intermittent generation for each generation site. Intermittent generators will be able to submit offers using their own forecast if their forecast is consistently at least as accurate as the centralised forecast.

We are confident a hybrid forecasting arrangement will lead to consistently more accurate intermittent generation forecasts and offers. More accurate forecasts and offers will increase the accuracy of price signals, which contributes to the most efficient and lowest cost sources of generation being dispatched while enhancing security of supply. This is a key initiative to support affordable electricity for consumers.

Request for proposals

The Authority is running an open procurement process for a provider of the centralised forecast through the Government Electronic Tender Service (GETS).

We will work towards selecting our preferred provider in early 2025 and aim for the forecaster to begin providing services by mid-2025.

Timelines are indicative and may be subject to change. Any changes made will be communicated through the GETS platform.